期刊論文

• 學年度: 97
• 計畫案號: 無
• 論文名稱: 股權溢價之謎文獻探討與評析
• 作者順序: 24
• 期刊名稱: 中華技術學院學報
• 發表卷數: 無
• 發表期數: 39
• 發表月份: 12
• 發表年份: 2008
• 摘要: Mehra and Prescott (1985)提出股權溢價之謎（equity premium puzzle），指出股 票報酬與債券報酬之間的差距無法透過消費基礎資本資產定價模型(CCAPM)得到 合理解釋。自此，如何解開股權溢價之謎成為財務金融領域探討的重要課題，並 帶動資產定價理論的蓬勃發展。本文對過去的相關文獻進行分析與探討，以作為 將來進一步理論發展的基礎，並指出未來可行的努力方向。
• 通訊作者: N
• 發表形式: 60
• 發表地點: 94



• 學年度: 97
• 計畫案號: 無
• 論文名稱: 雪山隧道通車後是否能夠提高宜蘭地區觀光住宿效益？－以遊客住宿行前期望、滿意度及再宿意願為例
• 作者順序: 25
• 期刊名稱: 中華技術學院學報
• 發表卷數: 無
• 發表期數: 39
• 發表月份: 12
• 發表年份: 2008
• 摘要: 本文以EKB 模式做為理論基礎，建構雪山隧道通車後對宜蘭地區遊客之行前 期望、滿意度與再宿意願之結構方程式。實證方法採便利抽樣法共得354 份有效 問卷，並運用統計分析之敘述統計、單因子變異數分析及線性結構方程式模式分 析，並探討雪隧通車後對宜蘭地區遊客之行前期望、滿意度與再宿意願等特性。 實證結果發現，雪山隧道通車後對宜蘭地區遊客以女性居多，年齡成則多在21-30 歲，教育程度多數為大專院校且未婚者。在旅遊時間規劃上則以二天較多，且住 宿房價在2001-3000 元之間。在行前期望重視度方面以消防設施、乾淨程度、服務 態度最為重要，對再宿意願影響效果方面，結果發現遊客滿意度較差。
• 通訊作者: N
• 發表形式: 60
• 發表地點: 94



• 學年度: 97
• 計畫案號: 無
• 論文名稱: An Analysis on Taiwan Farm Prices under Different Chicken Import Deregulation Policies
• 作者順序: 26
• 期刊名稱: WSEAS TRANSACTIONS on INFORMATION SCIENCE & APPLICATIONS
• 發表卷數: 9
• 發表期數: 5
• 發表月份: 12
• 發表年份: 2008
• 摘要: Based on the changes of chicken import policy, the time series of broiler farm prices could be divided into three periods: import control, import quota and import liberalization. This study adopted GARCH models and weekly data to analyze the volatility and responses of broiler farm prices during these different periods. First of all, the characteristics of broiler farm prices were examined by the autocorrelation, normality and heteroskedasticity of error term. Following the results of tests, the empirical models were conducted. The empirical results indicate that there is larger long-run persistence effect of shocks in the import liberalization period. The responses of broiler farm prices to the lag broiler farm prices, survey number of chick after six weeks, pig prices, colorful broiler farm prices, chick prices and feedstuff prices are different during these three periods. Finally, by comparing indicators of RMSE, MAE and MAPE, the results show that the empirical model in the import liberalization has better prediction ability and performance.
• 通訊作者: N
• 發表形式: 60
• 發表地點: 94



• 學年度: 98
• 計畫案號: 無
• 論文名稱: Price Information Evaluation and Prediction for Broiler Using Adapted Case-based Reasoning Approach
• 作者順序: 26
• 期刊名稱: Expert System with Applications
• 發表卷數: 無
• 發表期數: 36
• 發表月份: 1
• 發表年份: 2009
• 摘要: Predicting the upcoming broiler market price is important for the producers in developing their production plan. Effective price prediction model can aid producers to prevent over production or production shortage of broilers in advance. This research proposes an adapted CBR approach for predicting broiler price. The results indicate that the proposed adapted CBR approach demonstrates superior prediction performance than un-adapted CBR approach, CART, artificial neural nets and linear regression with at least 50% less of mean average error. This study finds that adjusting the price of the most similar case by considering the similarity distance to the case being predicted is a key to improve the prediction accuracy of the case-based broiler price estimation model.
• 通訊作者: N
• 發表形式: 60
• 發表地點: 94



• 學年度: 98
• 計畫案號: 無
• 論文名稱: Farm Price Prediction Using Case-Based Reasoning Approach －A Case of Broiler Industry in Taiwan
• 作者順序: 26
• 期刊名稱: Computers and Electronics in Agriculture
• 發表卷數: 無
• 發表期數: 66
• 發表月份: 1
• 發表年份: 2009
• 摘要: Since Taiwan joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2002, pricing decision has become more essential to the development of the broiler industry. The effective prediction of broiler prices is essential from the viewpoint of the agriculture authority and the Poultry Association, thus a more realistic broiler price structure can assist the government to manage the national production resources more effectively. This research proposes a weighted case-based reasoning (CBR) approach to construct a price prediction model. The genetic algorithm model was adopted to find out the most suitable feature weights for CBR. Previous local production data and economic indices, along with information about imported chicken, were collected to build the prediction model. The experimental results indicated that the proposed CBR approach could exhibit a better prediction performance than the ones exhibited by linear regression, regression tree, and neural nets approaches. The findings also revealed that broiler prices were mostly influenced by the prices of colorful broilers and chicks.
• 通訊作者: N
• 發表形式: 60
• 發表地點: 94



• 學年度: 98
• 計畫案號: 95-救助調整-牧-01(1)
• 論文名稱: 台灣白肉雞產地價格之灰預測模型研究
• 作者順序: 25
• 期刊名稱: 農業與經濟
• 發表卷數: 無
• 發表期數: 41
• 發表月份: 12
• 發表年份: 2009
• 摘要: 本研究根據灰預測的方法，利用相關變數的原始資料，建構適合白肉雞產地價格之灰預測模型(GM；Grey Models)GM(1,N)預測模型，並分析相關之影響因素。其結果顯示以GM(1,1)模型來預測，價格資訊運用的最佳筆數為八筆；而以GM(1,N)模型中之GM(1,6)模型來預測準確度可達95.26%，表示白肉雞產地價格適合以此推估模式進行預測，並可獲得精確的預測結果，故本研究結果可提供農政單位在價格預警及產業輔導的基礎，與業者作為調整出雞及入雞時間決策的參考依據。
• 通訊作者: N
• 發表形式: 75
• 發表地點: 94